The military situation in Russia’s Kursk region has become increasingly precarious for Ukrainian forces.
Initially, Ukrainian troops advanced into the region, securing areas such as the Russian town of Sudzha (population of approximately 5,000). Suzdha is strategically important for Russia, as it is the location of the natural gas feeder where the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhzhorod Pipeline (also known as the Trans-Siberian Pipeline or the Brotherhood Pipeline) that until the end of 2024 transported natural gas from Siberia to Europe through Ukraine via Slovakia.
A gas feeder is a piece of technology that transforms gas supply from the so-called "supply main" (where gas is transported at high pressure over long distances) to the so-called "distribution main" (where gas is carried in smaller pipes and at lower pressures suitable for consumption). However at the end of 2024 Ukraine did not renew the contract for gas supplies across her territory from Russia to Slovakia and beyond in Europe, and one way they enforced this was control over the gas feeder at Sudzha.
The shutting off of the pipeline to Uzhhorod and then onwards to Slovakia across Ukraine from Sudzha is one of the principal concerns of Slovakia in achieving a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia that comports with Slovakian interests, as this pipeline (until it was shut off) provided 81% of Slovakian gas supplies. That is why the recent EU-26 declaration on supporting Ukraine, dated 6 March 2025, contained a proviso, at the insistence of Slovakia, that adequate provision would be made for Slovakian gas supplies as part of a ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia. Hence Ukrainian occupation of parts of the Kursk region was negotiating tool for future peace negotiations with Russia, due to the vulnerability of the gas feeder at Sudzha. Article 12 of the EU-26 declaration provided:
The European Council calls on the Commission, Slovakia and Ukraine to intensify efforts towards finding workable solutions to the gas transit issue, while taking into consideration the concerns raised by Slovakia.
However, recent developments indicate a significant Russian counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming the Ukrainian-occupied territories in the Russian Kursk region, including Sudzha. If the Russians have stable control of the gas feeder at Sudzha and its associated infrastructure in the Ukrainian-occupied parts of Kursk, they are in a stronger position in seeking re-opening of the Trans-Siberian pipeline as a term of any ceasefire.
Current Positions and Forces
Ukrainian forces have maintained a presence in the Kursk region since their incursion over six months ago. Open-source intelligence suggests that Russian troops have recently made gains, pushing towards Ukrainian-held positions and even advancing into Ukraine’s Sumy region, thereby threatening Ukrainian supply lines and increasing the risk of encirclement.
Estimates of troop numbers in the region vary. Reports indicate that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are currently operating in Kursk. Conversely, Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean units, have been actively working to expel Ukrainian troops from the area. There is no open source information about how many Russian and North Korean troops are currently active in this counter-offensive, but it is likely significantly to exceed the number of Ukrainian forces in the region.
Encirclement and Exit Routes
Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukrainian forces in Kursk are effectively surrounded, presenting them with the ultimatum to surrender or face destruction. However Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has refuted these claims, asserting that Ukrainian troops are not encircled and continue to hold their positions. His assertion seems to be supported by open source intelligence (see the map above). He did, however, caution about a new Russian troop buildup near Ukraine’s Sumy region, which could pose additional threats to Ukrainian forces.
Duration of Ukrainian Positions
The sustainability of Ukrainian positions in Kursk is uncertain. The recent Russian advances have reduced the territory under Ukrainian control, shrinking from 407 square kilometers to 288.8 square kilometers within a week. This contraction suggests mounting pressure on Ukrainian forces, potentially limiting their operational capabilities and duration in the region.
Treatment of Prisoners of War
President Putin has assured that any surrendering Ukrainian soldiers will be treated with dignity. However, Russia’s track record regarding the treatment of prisoners of war has been a point of international concern, casting doubt on these assurances.
International Responses
US President Donald Trump has expressed concern over the situation, urging President Putin to ensure the safety of Ukrainian soldiers who might be encircled in Kursk. Trump described his discussions with Putin as “very good and productive,” expressing optimism about the potential end of the war in Ukraine. However given the uncertainty on the ground as to exactly which positions are held by Ukraine and how sustainable those positions are, it is hard to assess how high the risk of encirclement is.
Ceasefire Negotiations and Strategic Implications
The timing of these military developments coincides with ongoing discussions about a potential ceasefire. Some analysts suggest that President Putin may be leveraging the situation in Kursk to strengthen Russia’s position in negotiations, possibly aiming to delay substantive talks until achieving more favourable military outcomes and expelling the Ukrainian Armed Forces entirely from Kursk.
The Trump administration’s stance on applying pressure for an immediate ceasefire remains cautious. While advocating for the safety of Ukrainian soldiers, the US appears to be balancing its diplomatic efforts with the complex dynamics on the ground. There is speculation that Russia might use captured Ukrainian soldiers as bargaining chips in future negotiations, a tactic observed in previous conflicts.
Conclusion
The situation in the Kursk region is fluid and complex. While Ukrainian forces face significant challenges due to Russian advances and potential encirclement, official statements from Kyiv maintain that their troops are not surrounded and continue to resist. The international community, particularly the United States, is closely monitoring the developments, weighing options to support Ukraine while navigating the intricate landscape of ceasefire negotiations and geopolitical strategies and the constant changes on the ground.
If as the Russian Armed Forces claim Sudzha has been captured, then one might query the wisdom of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continuing to try to hold their positions in Kursk because they have lost control of the Sudzha gas feeder. Instead they might more valuably retreat to defensive positions on Ukrainian territory to defend the Sumy region of Ukraine against Russian incursions, pending the next step in the ceasefire negotiations process.