As of 15 March 2025, the United States and Russia are engaged in confidential negotiations to establish a US-backed ceasefire proposal in Ukraine to which Russia will agree. This initiative follows a US-proposed 30-day truce, which Ukraine has accepted, contingent upon Russia’s agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed conditional support, indicating the need for further discussions to finalise the terms. President Trump is known to be impatient to resolve the issue one way or the other, so the next week is critical.
Both nations have maintained a deliberate silence on the specifics, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasising the importance of private negotiations over public discourse. However we can speculate.
Key Issues Under Negotiation
1. Demilitarised Zone (DMZ): Establishing a DMZ is crucial to prevent further hostilities. The challenge lies in agreeing on its boundaries, especially in contested regions. Typically in DMZ agreements troops move backwards from their front line positions in phases: first to 5 kilometres apart, and then to 10 kilometres part, and then to 25 kilometres apart (approximate accurate shelling range), and the like. However there are some large cities within such ranges on the Ukrainian side, and demilitarising them in the strict sense might prove difficult.
2. Peacekeeping Forces: Discussions likely involve deploying international peacekeepers to monitor compliance. The composition and mandate of such forces are sensitive topics, with Russia historically opposing NATO involvement. Starmer's hastily convened video conference with the political leaders of the "coalition of the willing" on the afternoon of 15 March 2025, a Saturday, to be followed by a meeting in person of series of military leaders on Thursday 20 March 2025, presumably preceded by intense negotiations simultaneously underway about which country contributes what and how command-and-control structures are to work, suggests that Europe and other allies are expected to fit a peacekeeping force into whatever negotiation is being forged between Washington and Moscow and they are expected to produce a result by 20 or 21 March 2025, the likely timescale of the Washington-Moscow negotiations.
3. Sanctions and Frozen Assets: Russia seeks relief from Western sanctions and access to frozen assets. The US may consider phased easing, contingent upon Russia’s adherence to the ceasefire and other conditions. These include travel restrictions, banking sanctions, prohibitions on flights in and out of Russian airports, export restrictions, import restrictions, joint venture restrictions, and a whole host of what is probably the heaviest package of international sanctions the world has ever seen.
4. Ceasefire Line: Determining the exact line of control is contentious, especially in areas with ongoing clashes. This demarcation will influence future territorial negotiations. In all likelihood the ceasefire line will represent the current front line exactly, because there are no current significant changes in territorial movements on the front line: just a series of heavy bombardments by either side against the other.
5. Disarmament and Reintegration: Plans for the withdrawal of heavy weaponry, demobilisation of combatants, and their reintegration into civilian life are essential for lasting peace. If something like 2 million armed men remain along the Russia-Ukraine front line, peace monitoring and enforcement will be impossible, so there must be clear time scales committed to by both sides to reintegrate those armed men into society, itself a complex and time consuming procedure that requires government and in this case likely international assistance. Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and people having lost their regular jobs often impedes effective reintegration, especially when families have been split up and loss of life has been widespread.
6. Kursk Oblast Situation: The presence of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region complicates negotiations. Russia claims these troops are encircled, demanding their surrender, while Ukraine disputes this narrative. Resolving this standoff is pivotal, presumably with Ukraine leaving Russian territory of her own free will but in exchange for a concession of some kind mediated through the United States.
7. Prisoner Exchanges and Civilian Movement: Establishing protocols for exchanging prisoners of war and ensuring safe civilian passage across the contact line are humanitarian priorities. The practical and legal regimes for facilitating these matters are complex but expertise can be introduced later to give effect to these agreements provided the elementary principles are agreed to. Only Russia and Ukraine know exactly how many of the other country's prisoners of war they hold; nobody can say how many civilians may wish to cross the contact line once this becomes a priority and whether they intend to do so permanently (i.e. without coming back).
8. US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement: The recently proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal aims to jointly develop Ukraine’s natural resources, including rare earth elements. While this agreement could bolster Ukraine’s economy, it has raised concerns about potential implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty and the environment. The Russian side will have queries and concerns about where the initial US investment will take place, as a lot of it is likely to be close to the contact line as that is where many of Ukraine's valuable minerals are.
9. Ukraine’s NATO and EU Aspirations: Russia demands Ukraine renounce its NATO ambitions, a point Ukraine resists. While NATO membership is unlikely in the near term, discussions might explore alternative security assurances involving Starmer's "coalition of the willing". Ukraine’s EU aspirations are primarily an issue between Kyiv and Brussels, as the United States will no doubt point out in negotiations.
10. Reconstruction and Infrastructure: Post-conflict reconstruction is vital. Discussions may involve international funding mechanisms and investment strategies to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Prospective Compromises
• DMZ and Peacekeepers: A compromise might involve a UN-mandated peacekeeping force comprising a mixture of countries acceptable to both parties.
• Sanctions Relief: The US could propose a phased lifting of sanctions, tied to verifiable milestones in the ceasefire implementation.
• Territorial Adjustments: While Ukraine is unlikely to concede sovereignty, temporary administrative arrangements, including internationalised territory (overseen by a civilian governor and backed by military peacekeeping force) could be considered for disputed regions, pending final status discussions.
• Security Guarantees: Alternative security arrangements, such as non-NATO bilateral or multilateral defence pacts with Ukraine (particularly amongst the "coalition of the willing" assembled by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer), might be explored to address Ukraine’s security concerns without provoking Russia.
Conclusion
The success of these negotiations hinges on mutual concessions and building trust. The involvement of international stakeholders, including the “coalition of the willing” led by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, underscores the global significance of achieving a sustainable peace in Ukraine. The coming days are critical, as both the US and Russia navigate these complex issues to reach a viable ceasefire agreement.