The forthcoming US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, this coming week, are set against a backdrop of heightened tensions and complex geopolitical dynamics. These discussions aim to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with the United States playing a pivotal role in mediating potential resolutions. The United States has already had talks with Russia in Riyadh, and these are follow-up talks to try to reach a deal. However the talks are shrouded in mystery, perhaps understandably, as nobody has released an agenda. To do so might initiate another round of "battle by media" which seems destructive and contrary to Ukraine's and Europe's interests as they clash with contemporary US policy on Ukraine.
Structure and Participants of the Talks
The talks are scheduled to take place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with delegations from both the United States and Ukraine in attendance. The US delegation is expected to be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, accompanied by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. On the Ukrainian side, senior officials and negotiators will represent their nation’s interests but it is not clear who they will be. Notably, it has been reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be present in Saudi Arabia but will not participate directly in the talks. Instead, he is anticipated to engage in bilateral discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and oversee his negotiating team, providing strategic direction and making final decisions as necessary.
Recent Tensions Between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy
The relationship between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently been fraught with tension. In February 2025, during a meeting at the White House, a significant disagreement arose over a proposed minerals deal and differing approaches to the conflict with Russia. President Trump admonished Zelenskyy, accusing him of “gambling with World War III” and showing disrespect to the United States. This confrontation led to the Ukrainian delegation’s abrupt departure from the White House and a subsequent suspension of US military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine.
Agenda and Potential Framework of the Talks
While the detailed agenda of the Jeddah talks has not been publicly disclosed, it is plausible that discussions will focus on:
1. Ceasefire Agreements: Establishing terms for a sustainable ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
2. Peace Negotiations Framework: Outlining a roadmap for comprehensive peace talks, including potential concessions and security guarantees.
3. Economic and Military Support: Determining the extent and conditions of US assistance to Ukraine, both economically and militarily.
4. Territorial Integrity: Addressing issues related to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial claims, particularly concerning regions affected by Russian occupation.
Issues Regarding Saudi Arabia as the Venue
The selection of Saudi Arabia as the host nation has elicited mixed reactions. Critics argue that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin could bias the proceedings, potentially undermining Ukraine’s position. Conversely, proponents contend that Saudi Arabia’s relations with both the US and Russia position her as a neutral facilitator outside Europe and with diplomatic connections with all sides, capable of bridging gaps between conflicting parties.
Potential Outcomes of the Talks
Optimistic Scenario
• Ceasefire Implementation: Both parties agree to an immediate and lasting ceasefire, reducing hostilities and civilian casualties.
• Framework for Peace: A structured plan is established for ongoing negotiations, with clear timelines and objectives.
• Renewed Support: The US commits to reinstating and potentially increasing military and economic aid to Ukraine, bolstering its defense capabilities and economic stability.
Pessimistic Scenario
• Stalemate: Talks fail to produce tangible outcomes, prolonging the conflict and exacerbating humanitarian crises.
• Diplomatic Fallout: Further deterioration of US-Ukraine relations, leading to decreased American executive support for Ukraine.
• Emboldened Aggression: A lack of resolution could encourage Russia to intensify its military actions, destabilising the region further. Already this weekend we have seen Russia take advantage of suspension of US intelligence assistance to Ukraine, to bombard various Ukrainian towns and cities with Ukrainian air defences weakened as a result of a reduction in air defence intelligence.
Factors Influencing Success
• Political Will: Genuine commitment from all parties to seek peaceful resolutions is crucial.
• International Pressure: Global diplomatic efforts and potential sanctions may incentivise constructive dialogue.
• Mediator Neutrality: The impartiality of Saudi Arabia as the host nation can facilitate trust and open communication.
Exclusion of European Representatives
The absence of European Union representatives from the talks raises concerns about the comprehensiveness and legitimacy of the negotiations. Europe has been a steadfast ally of Ukraine, providing substantial support and advocating for its sovereignty. Their exclusion could lead to:
• Perceived Marginalisation: Europe may feel sidelined, potentially weakening the unified front against Russian aggression.
• Alternative Initiatives: European powers might pursue separate diplomatic or military strategies from those of the United States, leading to fragmented efforts and reduced efficacy.
• Strained Alliances: The lack of inclusion could strain transatlantic relations, complicating future collaborative endeavors.
Conclusion
The US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah represent a critical juncture in addressing the ongoing conflict with Russia. While the recent tensions between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy add complexity to the negotiations, the potential for progress exists if all parties demonstrate flexibility and a genuine desire for peace. However, the exclusion of European representatives poses a significant challenge, as their involvement is vital for a holistic and enduring resolution, particularly if they are expected to enforce the deal reached with peacekeepers or other security guarantees. The outcomes of these talks will undoubtedly influence the geopolitical landscape and the future of Ukraine’s sovereignty.