Finland faces significant dangers and challenges in resisting a potential Russian invasion, given the historical context, the sheer length of its border with Russia, and the current geopolitical climate. Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre (832-mile) border with Russia, the longest of any European Union (EU) nation. This border extends through largely uninhabited forests, tundra, and lakes, making it difficult to monitor and defend effectively. Given her location in the far north, Finland must also contend with harsh arctic and sub-arctic conditions that pose additional challenges for military operations and logistics.
Historical Context of Finnish-Russian Conflicts
Finland has a history of conflict with Russia, most notably during the Winter War (1939-1940) and the Continuation War (1941-1944). In the Winter War, the Soviet Union attempted to annex Finland, but despite overwhelming numerical superiority, Soviet forces struggled against Finnish defensive tactics, particularly the use of guerrilla warfare, ski troops, and well-prepared defensive fortifications. The war ended with Finland ceding territory but maintaining its independence. The Continuation War, fought alongside Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union, saw Finland eventually forced into a peace settlement that resulted in further territorial losses but once again preserved her sovereignty. Given Russia's current aggressive posture and expansionist ambitions, Finland is again justifiably concerned about her security. Russia has tried to absorb Finland into her territory before, and given her current territorial push westwards she may well seek to do so again.
Defensive Measures and Military Enhancements
In response to the renewed threat from Russia, Finland has taken several steps to strengthen its border security and military capabilities. These include:
Troop Increases and Military Spending
Finland has significantly increased her defence budget and troop numbers. The Finnish Defence Forces rely heavily on conscription, meaning a large portion of the population has military training.
Plans have been put in place to bolster border troops and fortify key border areas.
Border Security Enhancements
Finland has constructed stronger border barriers to prevent unauthorised crossings (often where previously no border barriers existed at all).
Authorities have implemented strict visa requirements, preventing Russians from crossing into Finland without proper documentation which it is now very difficult to obtain (whereas previously Russians could cross into Finland for short stays without visas).
Russia has been accused of sending criminals and prisoners posing as asylum seekers to the Finnish border, leading Finland to impose further restrictions on asylum applications from Russia.
Strategic Alliances: NATO and the EU
Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023, strengthening her security ties with Western allies.
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all, theoretically providing Finland with collective defence guarantees.
Finland has also sought greater cooperation with EU partners to enhance border security and military readiness.
Can Finland Defend Her Border Alone?
While Finland has demonstrated impressive resilience and military prowess in past conflicts, defending such an extensive border against a full-scale Russian invasion would be an immense challenge. The Finnish Armed Forces are highly skilled in Arctic warfare, but they remain vastly outnumbered by the Russian military. Finland alone, with a population of less than six million, may not be able to withstand an overwhelming Russian assault, especially if Russia gains further momentum in Ukraine.
Given these realities, Finland would require significant assistance from NATO and the EU to resist a Russian invasion. However, concerns remain regarding the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 commitments, particularly in light of shifting political attitudes in the United States. If the US were to adopt a more isolationist stance, as some political factions have suggested, Finland could face delays or outright refusals in receiving NATO military support in the event of an invasion. This underscores the need for Finland to enhance its independent defence capabilities while continuing to deepen European military cooperation.
Ever closer cooperation with Europe
Finland is taking extensive measures to guard against potential Russian aggression, including fortifying its borders, increasing its military readiness, and strengthening alliances with NATO and the EU. However, given the overwhelming size of the Russian military and Finland’s long and difficult-to-defend border, Finland alone may struggle to resist a full-scale invasion without external support. If NATO’s commitments come into question, Europe may need to take greater responsibility for Finland’s defence to ensure its sovereignty and stability. As Russia continues its expansionist policies, Finland and her European allies must remain vigilant, prepared, and united in the face of potential aggression.