At the time of writing Russia is fighting through the winter season to attack and attempt to seize as much territory as possible before much-anticipated Trump-led peace talks which will impose an uneasy peace upon the parties. Although the Trump transition team is saying very little about their likely policy in Ukraine, plenty of people in his administration have made their views known in the past as has President Trump. The Trump administration's views broadly, are that Ukraine is an important ally; however this war is a colossal waste of money; Russia cannot be seen to win; nevertheless a negotiated peace with Russia is essential; and the threat of overwhelming force on the part of the United States is enough to deter Russia. Therefore that threat needs to be used to force Russia to the negotiating table, while of course Ukraine relies on US money so they are forced to negotiate as well. In the longer term, President Trump wants Europe to re-arm so as to deter Russia, so that the United States need not be bogged down in a European war. Therefore he intends to press fellow NATO member states to build up their military capacity so that the United States can exit European theatre in all but nominal amounts, and focus on the threat of war with China which President Trump considers are far more pressing priority.
China is in fact in many ways a gentle giant in her foreign policy but President Trump sees her economic expansionism across the Far East as a clear and present danger to US hegemony which is what he has made clear his administration intends to reinstate: the slogan “Make America Great Again” says it all. Make America the top dog globally.
President Trump may however be wrong in that the economic not military war will be with China but Russia will remain a problem in military terms and so will the Middle East that Russia has a foothold in in the shape of Syria and Iran: two strong allies of Russia. So President Trump may find himself fighting Russia elsewhere, particularly as he supports Israel in policies against Iran and the Iran-friendly regime in Damascus. So US troops may not be able to leave Ukraine as quickly as he imagines, because it is better to bog down Russia down on two fronts simultaneously; she does not have the capacity to fight a war on two fronts.
In the meantime, the urgent struggle over territory through the winter is surely in anticipation of the January 20, 2025 inauguration of Trump when he will demand an immediate ceasefire by both parties and enforce that with financial and military sanctions. So Russia ploughs on, trying to seize the city of Zaporizhzhia by striking it with endless missiles and glide bombs overnight at the time of writing. At the same time there is an attempt to overrun Kostyantynivka in Donbas. The city by all accounts is full of Russian spies who are observing the civilian and military presence in the city alike. They appear as people looking like rough and homeless, or elderly people, or soldiers wearing Ukrainian military fatigues; but they have snuck over the front line positions just outside the city (this is very easy; you just walk through the forests) and we now have Russian reconnaissance teams observing what is happening in the city.
This itself is extremely alarming and a high degree of paranoia now exists in the city. There is certain to be a final Russian push to take it but this involves fighting through woods and fields from Chasiv Yar, a high point that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have put all their efforts into defending. This is just to the east of Kostyantynivka, and the Ukrainian capacity to prevent a Russian breakthrough in the face of waves of Russian soldiers walking to their deaths through unknown territory, is extraordinary. Due to the paranoia, the curfew there is now from 3pm to 11am when people are confined indoors and not even military personnel are allowed outside except when on specific missions. So the city has become a ghost town, much like Pokrovsk just to the south which has the same restrictive curfew also due to concerns about Russian reconnaissance teams.
So Russia is going to fight through the winter to seize as much territory as possible irrespective of the human cost. This is why the Biden administration, surely in coordination with Trump’s transition team, is supplying as much weaponry and armaments as possible to Ukraine over the winter in order to resist the Russian onslaught.
In the meantime, Ukraine is being encouraged to develop its own armaments industry by the United States and Europe. Why? Because with the largest land army in Europe, and one of the largest armies in the world, Ukraine is surely a budding NATO member state that, one peaceful and subject to de facto partition down the ultimate armistice line, can transform NATO and act as the first line of defence against the Russians in Europe. The Russian army is not good in any sense; it has been developing missiles for sale but it does not have enough of its high technology equipment to fight a war with so it is resorting to cheap drones and glide bombs (old fashioned bombs with wings attached to make them more accurate). And Russia is in the business of losing soldiers: by one estimate the Russian Armed Forces have incurred some 250,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine, a massive number but that is how Russia has always fought wars. The enormous casualty numbers must ultimately have a domestic effect on Russia which is suffering from population decline anyway: its reproduction numbers (how many children each family has) are getting critically low and substantial proportions of the population have fled, many never to return.
So Russia knows she cannot sustain this war for longer; there will be an armistice agreement along the front line as Trump will dictate; therefore this was is in the third and final, hottest stage, in which every inch of territory is struggled for and that is why we are seeing such intense bombardments of Ukrainian cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kostyantynivka even in early December when it is getting cold and troops should be concentrating on staying alive and warm. This is the end phase of the war in Ukraine and like the end of all wars it is going to be ugly and involve substantial loss of life.