The 50-nations meeting in NATO: what can it be expected to achieve?

Today, Friday 11 April 2025, NATO headquarters in Brussels hosted a pivotal summit of around 50 nations, co-chaired by the United Kingdom and Germany. This is the 27th session of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, also known as Ramstein. This gathering underscores Europe’s escalating leadership in supporting Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia, especially as the United States adopts a more reserved role.

The meeting took place in the context of increasing Russian offensives in the Kharkiv and Sumy areas of northeast Ukraine, and a report by the United Nations Monitoring Mission in Ukraine of a 50% increase in civilian casualties in Ukraine in March 2025 compared to the previous month, with 164 killed and 910 injured.

Broad Participation and Notable Attendees

The summit convened representatives, for the most part Defence Ministers and military leaders, from all 31 NATO member states, alongside EU nations and key global partners such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand. It is not entirely clear exactly which countries were represented; a full list seems not to be available and there have been conflicting media reports even of how many countries participated (reports say "50" or "about 50"). Nevertheless interestingly, countries like Brazil and Morocco, not traditionally involved in NATO affairs, are confirmed to have participated, reflecting the global ramifications of the Ukraine conflict. This is presumably because the conflict in Ukraine is perceived as having an increased effect upon a deteriorating global economy, in light of Ukraine's inability to export her key commodities such as agriculture, coal and steel while the conflict continues; and the increased military spending all countries are having to participate in while the spectre of a broader global conflict remains.

There are a number of countries not officially part of Ramstein but that have been providing military assistance of one form or another to Ukraine, who may nonetheless have participated in some form in the meeting, potentially out of view. These include Azerbaijan, Colombia, Israel, Jordan, Pakistan and Taiwan. The diplomacy is foggy.

Yesterday in Brussels, immediately preceding today's summit, there was a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing", chaired by France and the United Kingdom which is a group of 33 nations in principle willing to provide their own armies' active military support to Ukraine. The goals of the Coalition of the Willing were stated yesterday by the British Defence Secretary to be "putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position to protect its sovereignty and to deter any further Russian aggression" with four clear objectives:

• Ensure a secure sky;

• Ensure secure seas;

• Ensure peace on land;

• Support the Ukrainian armed forces to "to become their own strongest possible deterrent".

It is not yet clear when the Coalition of the Willing's military forces will actually be deployed to Ukraine or where, and whether this might take place in advance of a formal ceasefire agreement or only afterwards. Russia has stated that she remains vehemently opposed to such an international military force in Ukraine, whether before or after a ceasefire. There is a discussion of these countries' troops being deployed to "strategic locations" in Ukraine, with military officials to travel to Ukraine to discuss which the most important locations might be for deployment. It has been reported that the deployment anticipated will cover not just military capabilities but logistics and intelligence support.

US Participation in Today's Talks

While the United States was officially represented at today's meeting, her delegation participated by video conference only (with Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin in attendance). While this might indicate an increasing divide between Europe and the United States on the terms of a Ukrainian ceasefire agreement, Germany's Defence Minister expressed the view that it was of no importance that the US was participating by video conference, given the senior official from the US side taking part.

This arguably limited presence coincided with US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, where he is engaging in discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kirill Dimitriev, a Russian financier who has emerged as an informal negotiator on behalf of the Kremlin. Witkoff, a former real estate developer, is reportedly facilitating a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin, possibly in Saudi Arabia, aiming to negotiate a ceasefire. Scepticism surrounds Witkoff’s diplomatic acumen, given his unconventional background. However perhaps the most important feature of his presence in Moscow is that he is trusted by President Trump.

Yesterday in Istanbul, the United States and Russia held an independent meeting focused on normalising embassy operations between the two countries that had become plagued by allegations of espionage and the freezing of diplomatic assets, contrary to the Vienna Conventions on Diplomatic on Consular Relations. However US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasised that Ukraine was not on the agenda at that meeting, saying "restoring overall bilateral relations can only occur once there is peace between Russia and Ukraine".

The United States has not yet agreed to participate in the "Coalition of the Willing", but it is understood that British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have been lobbying US President Donald Trump to do so. Nevertheless in a statement on social media (President Trump's preferred method of communicating his personal views), the US President observed today "Russia has to get moving. Too many people are DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war". This hopefully suggests that despite the two lines of pressure being place on Russia - one European-led and the other run by the United States - the American President broadly supports European efforts to increase military pressure on Russia through today's meeting. America's pressure may be financial, in the form of increased sanctions and forcing down the price of oil, while President Trump expects the Europeans to take the lead militarily.

The Ukrainian Defence Minister today confirmed that the United States is continuing her "security assistance" to Ukraine, presumably a reference to continued military aid and intelligence support.

UK-Led Defence Package for Ukraine

A significant highlight of the summit was the United Kingdom’s announcement of a £450 million (US$580 million) military aid package for Ukraine. This comprehensive support includes:

• 60 vessels, comprising offshore raiding craft and dive boats

• Over 1,600 strike and air defence missiles

• More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility “Husky” vehicles and 162 armoured vehicles

• Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition

• The provision of hundreds of thousands of drones

• Radar systems

• Anti-tank mines

This package aims to bolster Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities, particularly in anticipation of potential renewed Russian offensives.

In addition, the 50-nation meeting at NATO headquarters announced a collective 21 billion Euros military expenditure package for Ukraine, the bulk of which would be a further 11 billion Euros from Germany, including IRIS-T mobile air defence missile systems and PATRIOT air defence missiles.

There may also be a prospect of a consensus taking place to blockade Russian oil tankers. In what is believed to be the first such occasion, today Estonia's navy boarded and detained an oil tanker heading for Russia. If other NATO member states' navies follow suit, a comprehensive naval blockade may ensue, that would severely hamper Russia's capacity to trade in oil even using her "shadow fleet" that by now is well documented by western intelligence services.

Germany’s Emerging Military Role

Germany’s co-hosting of the summit signifies its evolving role as a central military power in Europe. Germany formed a new "grand coalition" of her main centre-right (CDU / CSU) and centre-left (SPD) parties yesterday, with CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who strongly supports Ukraine, as Germany's new Chancellor. Under her new leadership, Germany has pledged substantial support to Ukraine and is actively participating in shaping Europe’s defence strategy, marking a departure from her traditionally cautious stance on military engagements.

Germany's representative at the meeting, the new Defence Minister Boris Pisotorious, summed up the mood of the meeting at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian and British counterparts at the end of the meeting, saying "Given Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, we must concede peace in Ukraine appears to be out of reach in the immediate future ... We will ensure that Ukraine continues to benefit from our joint military support. Russia needs to understand that Ukraine is able to go on fighting, and we will support it."

Germany's position was echoed by that of the United Kingdom. British Defence Secretary John Healey commented “today is one month to the day in which Russia rejected President Trump’s peace settlement. Putin said he wanted peace, but he rejected a full ceasefire. Putin said he wanted peace, but he continues to drag his feet and delay negotiations. Putin said he wanted peace, but his forces continue to fire on Ukraine, military and civilian targets alike”.

Prospects for Consensus and Ceasefire

While the summit showcased a unified front among participating nations, the absence of US engagement on a military peacekeeping force and the complexities of coordinating a multinational peacekeeping force present challenges. The ongoing diplomatic efforts, including potential high-profile meetings facilitated by figures like Witkoff, indicate a concerted push towards negotiating a ceasefire. However the success of these endeavours remains uncertain, contingent on the alignment of diverse international interests and the willingness of conflicting parties to compromise.

In outline, there are two directions towards which this tangled web of diplomacy might go:

1. Russia accepting a ceasefire along the current front line; partial relief from US sanctions (Europe has made it clear that there will be no sanctions relief without full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine's internationally recognised territory); and entrance of a "Coalition of the Willing" peacekeeping force into Ukrainian territory with Russian acquiescence (presumably at negotiated locations); or

   
   

2. Russia pressing her maximalist demands for absorption of more Ukrainian territory; the United States increasing sanctions to so-called "secondary sanctions" (i.e. sanctions on countries doing business with Russia); an increasing naval blockade on Russia; the United States maintaining low oil prices to cripple Russia's economy, and possibly a proportion of the "Coalition of the Willing" entering Ukraine on Ukraine's invitation notwithstanding Russia's objection.

Either way, it seems likely that Ukraine will accept the United States' "US-Ukraine minerals agreement", but such a document will take months if not years to negotiate (as is standard with such foreign investment agreements) and will be implemented only over several years, with profits being realised only after a significant period of investment in rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure necessary to give effect to such a deal. It is in Ukraine's interests to reach an agreement in principle with the United States, as it binds the United States into Ukraine's future welfare, however long the war continues - and incentivises the United States to apply pressure to bring the war to a prompt conclusion.

The Brussels summit highlighted Europe’s proactive stance in supporting Ukraine and striving for a resolution to the conflict, amidst shifting dynamics in global diplomatic and military engagements. But it is far from obvious that an immediate peace is on the horizon. That may depend upon the success or otherwise of an imminent Trump-Putin summit.