On 13 March 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko in Moscow, where he addressed the US-backed proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin expressed conditional support for the ceasefire, emphasising that it must lead to a “lasting peace” and address the “root causes of the conflict.”
It appears that President Putin had this press conference with his ally before meeting with Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy flying to Moscow to meet President Putin, presumably to present a united front and engage in strong positional bargaining. The words Vladimir Putin used at the press conference seem to have been very carefully worded, potentially not to overstep what Russia perceives as President Trump's red lines in mediating this conflict. Only yesterday President Trump was threatening heinous economic sanctions against Russia that might cripple her economy, were President Putin not to agree to the ceasefire. So Putin is trying to extract as good a deal as he can from President Trump, without appearing unreasonable to Trump's demands for a ceasefire.
Putin’s Observations During the Press Conference
During the joint press conference, Putin made several key observations:
1. Addressing Root Causes: He stressed that any ceasefire must tackle the underlying issues of the crisis, implying concerns over Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO.
2. Ceasefire Conditions: Putin warned against Ukraine using the ceasefire to regroup and rearm, highlighting the need for mechanisms to prevent such actions.
3. Territorial Occupation: He reiterated demands for Russian troops to remain in the areas of Ukraine under occupation and for Ukraine to withdraw her troops. It is not quite clear what he meant by this, because Ukrainian troops are ipso facto not in the areas of Russian occupation; what he may mean is a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the areas immediately adjacent to the Zero Line, which would presumably be acceptable only to the extent that Russian troops do the same thing. This is normal in any ceasefire agreement; it is typical for there to be a demilitarised zone between the warring parties to place space between one-another so that breaches of the ceasefire do not take place as local commanders decide to continue fighting with one-another notwithstanding the ceasefire.
4. NATO Involvement: Putin rejected the involvement of NATO peacekeepers in the ceasefire process. It is unsurprising that Putin made this demand, as his stated rationale for the war was to prevent NATO troops having ever further borders adjacent to Russia (at the moment the NATO member states with borders with Russia are Norway, Finland, Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania and Poland have borders with Russia's ally Belarus.) However a civilian presence along the front line, to monitor ceasefire compliance, was not excluded and seems a likely outcome.
Potential Agreement Among Leaders
Putin’s conditions present areas where U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might find common ground:
• NATO Aspirations: An assurance from President Trump that Ukraine will not join NATO during his term could be acceptable to Zelenskyy, as Ukraine’s NATO membership is unlikely within the next four years in any event.
• Territorial Status: While contentious, discussions are surely likely to focus on the current control lines, with Putin not explicitly demanding further Ukrainian territories like Zaporizhzhia or free parts of Donetsk and Kherson. Wars tend to end with ceasefire lines along the actual lines of control; President Zelenskyy would never agree to a ceasefire where Russia occupied territory not currently under her control.
Russian Military Position in Kursk and Ukrainian Strategy
Putin emphasised the need for Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Russia’s Kursk region, asserting that Russian forces are close to achieving this militarily. The presence of Ukrainian forces in Russian territory may serve as a bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations, potentially leveraging concessions from Russia. Indeed this was the stated aim of President Zelenskyy in invading the Kursk region: to obtain a bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
As of 12 March 12 2025, reports indicate that Russian forces have recaptured approximately 86% of the territory previously occupied by Ukraine in the Kursk region. This includes the liberation of 24 settlements and the capture of 400 Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian military, while continuing to resist, has reportedly begun strategic withdrawals from certain positions within Kursk, indicating a potential shift in control.
Given the current momentum of Russian operations and the strategic withdrawals by Ukrainian forces, absent an agreement on the part of Ukraine to withdraw as part of a ceasefire deal, it is plausible that Russian troops could reassert full control over the Kursk region within the next few weeks. However, the exact timeline remains contingent upon various factors, including Ukrainian defensive strategies, potential reinforcements, and evolving battlefield conditions.
President Putin was in the Kursk region on 12 March 2025, underscoring the political importance to Russia in securing the region's full liberation. It is unlikely that President Trump is prepared to wait a few weeks for the Russians to expel the Ukrainians using military means, so Trump is likely to press Zelenskyy to withdraw from Kursk as part of the terms of an imminent ceasefire.
Implications of Ceasefire Conditions
Putin’s insistence that the ceasefire should not be used for Ukrainian rearmament suggests he seeks assurances from the US to halt military aid to Ukraine during the truce. This condition could be a sticking point, as continued US support is vital for Ukraine’s defence. A compromise on continued military expenditure on Ukraine to ensure its defence, without aggravating the possibility of continued hostilities, will presumably need to be thrashed out between the parties.
Personal Diplomacy Over Formal Agreements
Putin’s mention of a potential phone call with President Trump to finalise the ceasefire underscores his preference for personal diplomacy over formal treaties. Both leaders have shown a tendency to rely on individual relationships and assurances, sometimes bypassing traditional diplomatic channels.
In summary, Putin’s nuanced stance on the ceasefire proposal reflects a blend of strategic demands and openness to negotiation. Trump will presumably demand a rapid negotiation over ceasefire conditions, to prevent the war from continuing and the Ukrainians from resiling from the commitments they have made so far. The ceasefire may ultimately prove not set out in a complex treaty, as such documents tend to suit neither leader, but rather in a series of broad commitments and continued pressure on both sides to meet those commitments together with ongoing negotiations over individual issues.
Finally, President Trump has already commented that the observations made by Vladimir Putin are "promising but not enough", indicating that Trump intends to maintain pressure on the Russian President to reach the core principles of a ceasefire agreement in the shortest possible order.
We can expect further movement soon.