In his second term US President Donald Trump has embarked on a shuttle diplomacy mission between Ukraine and Russia, employing his characteristic negotiation tactics to broker a 30-day ceasefire in the ongoing conflict. Trump’s approach, often eschewing traditional diplomatic norms, leverages extreme pressure and threats to compel parties toward agreement.
In recent developments, Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed temporary ceasefire with Russia, leading to the resumption of American intelligence sharing and military aid to Kyiv. The agreement, negotiated in Saudi Arabia yesterday, calls for a 30-day ceasefire that can be extended by mutual consent. This proposal includes efforts to release prisoners of war and recover Ukrainian children relocated to Russia. President Trump plans to discuss the ceasefire with President Putin, aiming for immediate negotiations toward a long-term peace agreement.
Trump’s negotiation style is notably transactional, focusing on direct economic benefits to each side and leveraging hard power over traditional alliances and values. This approach is evident in his dealings with Ukraine and Russia, where he emphasises future financial transactions and benefits in global affairs.
In his second term, Trump has reversed previous US policies toward Ukraine and the Russian invasion. On 12 February 2025, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was “unrealistic” and that attempting to regain all territory would “only prolong the war.” He emphasised the need for Ukraine to have “robust security guarantees” but noted that NATO membership for Ukraine was not a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. The US expects Europe to provide more financial and military assistance to Ukraine, while the US concentrates more on her own security, particularly her economic security which she perceives as threatened by China (whereas Europe's security is not).
Trump’s direct engagement with President Putin has raised concerns among Ukraine and its European allies, who were alarmed by Trump unilaterally opening negotiations with Putin and apparently giving concessions to Russia (although it was never really made clear what those concessions were). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would not accept an agreement made without Ukraine's involvement, and former National Security Adviser John Bolton criticised Trump’s approach, suggesting it effectively surrendered to Putin before negotiations had begun. However Trump does seem to have taken notice of that criticism, arranging talks one level down (at ministerial level) between the United States and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia yesterday even after failed talks in Washington, DC between President Trump and President Zelenskyy led to a raft of measures against Ukraine including withdrawal of military and intelligence aid the previous week.
Trump’s strategy of applying extreme pressure and leveraging economic and military incentives has led to Ukraine’s agreement to the 30-day ceasefire in direct talks in Jeddah and achieved in a single day. Military and intelligence assistance has been restored after only three days, and presumably Trump's prior threat to deport Ukrainian refugees from the United States will now evaporate into thin air because Trump has managed to agree something with the Ukrainians. The success of this ceasefire now hinges on Russia’s response and willingness to engage in further negotiations. In the event that Russia does not agree to such a ceasefire then Trump's arsenal of unconventional diplomacy, including further financial and banking sanctions, seizure of Russian assets to fund the war in Ukraine and increase military supplies to Kyiv, and sanctions against Russia's "shadow fleet" of illicit vessels by which 50-75% of Russian hydrocarbons are sold onto the world market, might quickly cripple Russia's already ailing economy.
Moreover once a 30-day ceasefire has been agreed it can be observed and enforced by private civilians informally familiar with the front line and then, as time goes on and the ceasefire is inevitably extended multiple times, by US government contractors engaged under the framework of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, who will be deployed close to the front line where a lot of the minerals are located. In this way the US-Ukraine minerals agreement becomes a cover for a covert peace operation; violations by either side, should they occur, can be punished by the United Statees, as can any refusal to extend the ceasefire period at the insistence of the United States. In this way an initially fragile but as time goes on ever firmer peace can be established.
As these 30-day periods are extended, the litany of issues that have to be resolved one way or another in a ceasefire agreement, including prisoner of war exchange, facilities for families to be able to cross the front line at specified areas so that families may be reunited, the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant complex at Enerhodar, a de-militarised zone separating the parties, disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, and withdrawals by Ukraine from Kursk oblast and the Russians from the Vovchansk region near Kharkiv, can take place step by step, as well as future progress towards final status negotiations.
Trump’s unconventional stepwise tactics, involving significant noise and thunder, threats and their withdrawal - like his trade negotiations with Canada taking place contemporaneously - underscore a pragmatic, albeit contentious, approach to international diplomacy, aiming to achieve tangible outcomes in complex geopolitical conflicts even if this takes place at the expensive of conventional diplomatic norms.