Fortifying Europe’s Eastern Flank: Defence Expansion in the UK, Nordics, and Baltics Amidst Rising Tensions

In response to the evolving security landscape in Europe, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United Kingdom, the Baltic States, and the Nordic countries have intensified their defence strategies. A wave of military spending, deployments, and infrastructure development is transforming the region’s defence posture and fuelling discussion about the possibility of a more autonomous European military capability—potentially one that complements or, in the longer term, supplements NATO’s traditional US-led framework.

Denmark’s Naval Expansion: Building a Baltic Shield

Denmark recently announced a bold step to modernise and strengthen her naval capabilities in response to growing threats in the Baltic Sea. The Danish government has committed more than $5.6 billion (DKK 38 billion) to an extensive maritime defence package over the coming decade. The plan includes the procurement of:

• New warships, likely including advanced frigates and patrol vessels equipped with anti-air and anti-submarine warfare systems to guard key maritime routes and critical infrastructure in the North and Baltic Seas, including underwater cables.

• Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones for reconnaissance, maritime surveillance, and potential strike capabilities, offering greater situational awareness and rapid response.

• Sea mines, intended as a strategic deterrent and defensive tool to deny access to hostile forces in Danish and allied waters.

These investments aim to ensure Denmark’s ability to control maritime chokepoints such as the Danish Straits and contribute to NATO’s broader Baltic defence framework.

Germany’s Historic Deployment: Troops Permanently Stationed in Lithuania

In a landmark move, Germany has committed to stationing 4,800 troops permanently in Lithuania, marking the first time since World War II that German armed forces will be based long-term in a foreign country. This battlegroup will be reinforced by 200 civilian staff and substantial military infrastructure, including logistics, intelligence, and command units.

The deployment is designed to bolster NATO’s forward presence and serve as both a deterrent and rapid reaction force against any Russian incursion into the Baltics. The troops will train with local forces, participate in joint exercises, and maintain readiness to respond to hybrid or conventional threats along NATO’s eastern flank.

United Kingdom: Investing in the STORM Network

The UK has committed £1.4 billion to develop and deploy the STORM network (Strategic Tactical Operations Resilience Matrix), a next-generation integrated battlefield network aimed at dramatically increasing the situational awareness and communication capabilities of British and allied forces.

STORM will integrate satellite-based systems, AI-driven intelligence analysis, drone feeds, and real-time battlefield data across land, sea, and air domains. This secure digital infrastructure will support everything from tactical squad-level coordination to high-level command operations.

Expected results include:

• Faster decision-making in combat.

• Enhanced coordination between NATO and EU forces.

• Increased resilience against cyberattacks and electronic warfare.

STORM is also designed to be interoperable with European partners, particularly in the Nordics and Baltics, making it a keystone of a future European Defence Network.

Nordic and Baltic Investments: A United Northern Front

Sweden, Finland, and Norway have all significantly expanded their defence budgets and commitments following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the subsequent Nordic NATO realignments.

• Sweden, now a full NATO member, has reintroduced conscription, expanded her submarine fleet, and accelerated procurement of advanced Gripen E fighters. Her total defence budget is projected to exceed 2.2% of GDP by 2026.

• Finland, with her 1,300-kilometre border with Russia, has added hundreds of millions of Euros in defence spending, purchased F-35 fighter jets, and enhanced artillery, missile, and surveillance capabilities.

• Norway has committed to upgrading naval assets, increasing Arctic patrols, and investing in air and missile defence systems to protect her critical oil and gas infrastructure.

Together, the Nordic and Baltic states are building a de facto regional defence bloc that is increasingly interoperable with NATO and with one another, creating a seamless defensive line from the Arctic to Central Europe.

Toward a European Defence Force?

These developments may lay the groundwork for a coordinated European defence capability—one that strengthens NATO’s eastern flank and could potentially form the nucleus of a European peacekeeping force. Such a force, if endorsed by the Ukrainian government, might enter Ukraine to:

• Assist with reconstruction and civilian protection in liberated areas.

• Secure ceasefire lines under international agreement.

• Deter renewed hostilities in volatile regions.

While the concept of an EU military force has long been discussed, the convergence of threat perception, investment, and coordination now makes this a credible medium-term goal.

Deterrence Without Dependence?

This surge in European military capacity is widely seen as a deterrent to further Russian expansion. By increasing readiness, mobility, and coordination, Europe is making clear that any aggression beyond Ukraine will be met with overwhelming resistance—not just from the US, but from a revitalised and unified European front.

Yet doubts linger about NATO’s cohesion. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently reaffirmed America’s “unwavering commitment to NATO,” countering fears raised by President Donald Trump’s recurring criticisms of the alliance and threats to reduce US support. Trump’s ambivalence has led some European leaders to reassess their reliance on Washington, especially amid uncertainty about the outcome of the 2024 US elections.

Can Europe Defend Itself Without the United States?

In the short term, Europe is not yet capable of deterring Russia entirely without American support. The US provides critical components: strategic airlift, advanced ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), and nuclear deterrence. However, if current trends continue—with sustained investments, expanded procurement, and deeper regional cooperation—Europe could develop a sufficiently credible autonomous deterrent within 8–10 years.

To succeed, Europe must:

• Build integrated command structures independent of but compatible with NATO.

• Continue joint training and procurement to reduce inefficiencies.

• Develop logistics and infrastructure to enable rapid deployment of troops, armour and materiel across the continent.

Conclusion: A Moment of Military Rebirth

Europe is undergoing a dramatic shift in strategic thinking. From Denmark’s sea mines to the UK’s digital battlefield, and from German boots in Lithuania to Nordic air superiority, the continent is rearming with purpose. While the United States remains essential in the near term, Europe is taking its first real steps toward strategic sovereignty—not to replace NATO, but to ensure that no matter what happens in Washington, Europe can stand on its own.

Whether this momentum leads to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine—or a fortified Cold Peace—it signals a new European era of defence maturity, forged not in Brussels, but in the cold trenches of Eastern Europe.