The upcoming meeting of European leaders with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday 2 March 2025, holds significant importance, especially in light of recent tensions between Ukraine and the United States. The contentious encounter between President Zelensky and US President Donald Trump on 28 February 2025, culminated in a heated press conference and the abrupt failure to sign a much-anticipated minerals agreement. (The signing hall and desks had even been prepared.) This development has urgently prompted European nations to reassess their strategies concerning Ukraine and their broader defence and security policies - literally overnight.
Participants and Their Stances
The London meeting is expected to convene key European leaders. The precise list of members of the London meeting has not yet been finalised and is being negotiated as we speak, but those confirmed so far include:
• Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Having recently strengthened diplomatic ties with President Trump, Starmer is poised to play a pivotal role in mediating between the US and Ukraine. His administration has expressed unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland: Tusk has been a vocal advocate for robust support to Ukraine, emphasising the necessity for collective European defence initiatives. He has also highlighted the urgency of the London summit to address joint defence strategies.
• Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission: Under her leadership, the European Union has reaffirmed its steadfast support for Ukraine, committing substantial financial and military aid packages.
• António Costa, President of the European Council: Costa has consistently underscored the importance of a unified European stance against Russian aggression and in support of Ukraine.
• Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary: Contrasting with other European leaders, Orbán has shown alignment with President Trump’s perspectives, advocating for a more conciliatory approach towards Russia.
Anticipated Agenda Items
1. Europe-Ukraine Minerals Agreement: In light of the collapsed US-Ukraine minerals deal, European leaders may explore opportunities to collaborate with Ukraine on developing its rich mineral resources. Such an agreement could bolster Ukraine’s economy and reduce its dependency on external powers.
2. Contingency Planning for Potential Withdrawal of US Military Support Withdrawal: Given the strained US-Ukraine relations, Europe must prepare for scenarios where US military aid diminishes. Discussions will likely focus on enhancing Europe’s defense capabilities and ensuring sustained support for Ukraine.
3. Increasing European Defence Production: To compensate for potential shortfalls in US military supplies, European nations may deliberate on ramping up the production of weapons and ammunition tailored for Ukrainian forces. This move would ensure that Ukraine remains adequately equipped in its defence efforts.
4. Deployment of European Armed Forces in Ukraine: The summit might address the conditions under which European troops could be stationed in Ukraine, delineating their locations and rules of engagement. Such a deployment would serve as a deterrent against further Russian aggression and demonstrate Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
5. Diplomatic Engagements with the United States: In the aftermath of the Trump-Zelensky fallout, Europe may consider leveraging the UK’s strengthened relations with the US to facilitate dialogue and mend ties between Washington and Kyiv. Prime Minister Starmer’s rapport with President Trump could be instrumental in this endeavour.
6. Incentivising Continued US Cooperation: European leaders might brainstorm strategies to encourage the US to maintain its support for Ukraine, possibly through economic incentives, collaborative defense projects, or diplomatic engagements that align with US interests.
7. Duration of Enhanced Support: Recognising the potential for prolonged U.S. disengagement, Europe may commit to an extended period of heightened support for Ukraine, potentially spanning the entirety of President Trump’s current term.
8. Augmented Sanctions and Financial Measures: The summit could deliberate on imposing stricter banking sanctions on Russia, targeting shadow fleets, and reallocating frozen Russian assets in Europe to fund Ukraine’s defence. Additionally, discussions might encompass using revenues acquired from reciprocal tariffs on US goods in response to American tariffs on European products, again to support Ukrainian defence.
9. Exploring Alternative Support Mechanisms: Leaders may consider other avenues to bolster Ukraine, such as cyber defence collaborations, intelligence sharing, and humanitarian assistance to address the ongoing crisis.
Conclusion
Despite the recent diplomatic rift between Ukraine and the United States, the forthcoming European summit signifies a robust and unified commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. By proactively addressing these critical issues, European leaders aim to fortify their collective defence posture, ensure sustained support for Ukraine, and navigate the complexities of international diplomacy in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
This is a situation of such urgency that the agenda is no doubt being written as these words are being written, and it may be an opportunity for Europe to flex its military muscles as one in the absence of the United States, pressed into doing so without the usual folds of European bureaucracy by the critical nature of the situation presented to Europe.