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Battlefield status and political positions since the Riyadh talks: an update



As of 26 March 2025, the military situation along Ukraine’s front lines remains highly volatile, with significant engagements occurring in multiple sectors. Below is an overview of the current conditions in key areas.


Areas of recent active combat along the Ukrainian front line, 26 March 2025
Areas of recent active combat along the Ukrainian front line, 26 March 2025

Kupiansk and Lyman


Russian forces have intensified their assaults on the Kupiansk and Lyman fronts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported a notable increase in combat clashes, with 80 engagements occurring over the prior 24-hour period. This escalation underscores Russia’s persistent efforts to advance in these regions. 


Sloviansk and Kramatorsk


These cities remain strategic targets for Russian operations. The battles for nearby areas such as Toretsk and Chasiv Yar are part of a broader Russian strategy to create conditions favourable for the occupation of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The situation in these locales has deteriorated, with Russian forces capturing significant portions of the Toretsk agglomeration (southeast of Kostiantynivka). 


Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk


The Pokrovsk sector has witnessed intense combat, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelling 32 Russian attacks near settlements including Yevhenivka (west-southwest of Donetsk), Umanske (northwest of Donetsk), and Kalynove (west of Luhansk; northeast of Horlivka, of which Toretsk is a suburb). These assaults, supported by Russian aircraft, aim to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Kostiantynivka continues to be the subject of shelling and drone attacks. Fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, just east of Kostiantynivka. 


Kherson


Specific details regarding the current military situation in Kherson are limited based on available sources. However, the region continues to be a focal point due to its strategic importance. There is currently no active fighting in the vicinity of Kherson city according to informal sources, and Kherson appears to be tolerably safe although access for foreigners continues to be extremely limited by reason of restrictions placed upon entry into the Kherson region by the Ukrainian Military Governor of Kherson. Very few if any foreigners are in Kherson at the current time, apart from foreign soldiers in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who are not permitted to provide to provide official information to those outside the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


There does appear to be continued fighting northeast of Kherson, towards the Nova Kakhovka dam region.


Aerial Attacks and Ceasefire Observations


Following the US-mediated talks in Riyadh on Monday 24 March 2025, both Ukraine and Russia have engaged in aerial operations. Notably, Russia has launched a significant drone attack in the past 24 hours involving 117 drones, resulting in casualties and infrastructure damage in areas including Kryvyi Rih and Sumy. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 56 drones, while another 48 caused no damage. According to Kyiv, four people were killed. Moscow has countered that these attacks were justified by reason of Kyiv's attacks on sites in Crimea and Bryansk (a port on the Sea of Azov in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories), although there is no independent confirmation that any such attacks took place.


In addition, Kyiv says that Russia has attacked eight energy facilities in Ukraine since 18 March 2025, when Moscow said it was putting a halt to such attacks.


Therefore despite the agreements aimed at halting strikes over the Black Sea and on energy targets, the implementation of these ceasefires remains uncertain. The Kremlin has stated that it has placed conditions on their implementation, including the easing of agricultural sanctions and the reconnection of a state bank to the SWIFT system. Implementation of these measures to ease sanctions on the Russian economy seems unlikely any time soon, in particular given that four US soldiers have disappeared in Lithuania just today, while undertaking a NATO training exercise 10 kilometres from the Belarusian border. Details of this event are emerging at the current time. If Russia is found responsible for the disappearance of these US soldiers, that would mark a significant escalation. In addition, the European Union has stated today that it has no intention of alleviating Russian sanctions until Russia has fully withdrawn from Ukrainian territory, limiting Washington's hand in deploying a partial alleviation of sanctions as part of a gradual ceasefire.


In turn, Moscow has remarked that the contents of the "US-Russia ceasefire talks ... will definitely not be published", suggesting that Russia's current position is that no agreement at all has been reached. By contrast Kyiv has said that there were no preconditions placed on the partial ceasefire the US says was agreed at the Riyadh talks, indicating a fundamental misunderstanding between Kyiv and Moscow about the contents of any ceasefire agreement. It is impossible to verify what was actually agreed, because no official documents were released as a result of the Riyadh talks; only a series of (sometimes contradictory) statements to the media.


A Russian court today also convicted 23 captured Ukrainian Prisoners of War on terrorism charges, sentencing them to terms of imprisonment of between 12 and 23 years. Some of these individuals were captured during the siege of Mariupol in 2022, according to a Russian human rights group. These convictions before a Russian military court, which Kyiv has denounced as a "sham", suggests that Russia is intending to escalate pressure in the course of the conflict, not reduce it.


The Kremlin Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed readiness to observe a ceasefire on energy infrastructure attacks but has warned of strong retaliation if Russia continues her strikes. 


In summary, the front lines in Ukraine are characterised by ongoing and intense combat, with significant engagements in multiple sectors. The efficacy of recent ceasefire agreements is questionable, as both aerial and ground assaults persist, highlighting the complex and evolving nature of the conflict. There has been no obvious impact of the Riyadh talks upon the fighting so far, which suggests that further economic or military measures on the part of the West will be necessary to deter Russia from continuing the conflict.


While the newspaper headlines today are replete with discussions about US politicians using insecure communication tools such as Signal (the messaging App) to discuss military plans in the Middle East, and the terms of US Vice President Vance's forthcoming visit to Greenland, the situation on the ground in Ukraine since the Riyadh talks has taken a turn for the worse.

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