As the war in Ukraine continues with a prolonged stalemate along the front lines, the need for a structured peace agreement becomes ever more pressing. The United Kingdom and France, as leading European powers with vested interests in Ukraine's stability and security, have undertaken the drafting of a comprehensive armistice agreement to be presented to the United States. This document outlines the key provisions of a proposed armistice, which will seek to halt hostilities, facilitate reconstruction, and establish a framework for long-term stability, while ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and economic security.
Nature and Scope of the Agreement
This agreement is an armistice, not a peace treaty that redistricts Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. The agreement will recognise the front line as it currently stands, enforcing a cessation of hostilities without prejudicing Ukraine’s territorial claims. Future final status negotiations regarding Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory will be postponed and, if necessary, conducted via diplomatic intermediaries at a later date.
The armistice aims to:
Prevent further loss of life.
Establish mechanisms for peace enforcement.
Facilitate economic recovery.
Ensure that military forces are withdrawn from active conflict zones.
Allow for humanitarian considerations, including family reunifications and free civilian movement.
Military and Security Provisions
Ceasefire and Demilitarization:
A complete cessation of hostilities along the current front line.
Withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian troops to a distance of at least 25 kilometers from the armistice line, beyond effective shelling range.
Strict monitoring and verification of compliance by international observers.
Peacekeeping Force:
An international peacekeeping force, composed predominantly of NATO member states and other willing contributors, excluding China, will be deployed along the armistice line.
The United States is invited but not obliged to participate in the peacekeeping mission.
Peacekeeping forces will be mandated to use force, where necessary, to uphold the armistice and prevent ceasefire violations by either party.
Civilians and Free Passage:
Russia and Ukraine will be required to allow safe passage of civilians across the armistice line.
An international mechanism will oversee humanitarian corridors to ensure freedom of movement and reunification of displaced families.
Prisoner Exchange and Accounting for the Missing:
Immediate and full repatriation of all prisoners of war from both sides.
A coordinated international effort to account for and return the remains of the dead and identify missing persons.
Economic and Infrastructure Reconstruction
Adoption of the US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement:
The armistice will be signed simultaneously with the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, ensuring that Ukraine retains control over its natural resources.
This agreement will provide Ukraine with economic leverage and financial security for post-war recovery.
European Economic Responsibility:
The European Union, led by the UK and France, will oversee the economic reconstruction of free Ukraine.
A structured economic recovery package will be developed, integrating Ukraine progressively into the EU Customs Union, with the ultimate goal of full EU membership.
International Governance of Destroyed Cities:
A temporary international governance structure will be established for cities devastated by war, including Kupiansk, Kherson, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kostyantynivka.
International officials will oversee infrastructure rebuilding, humanitarian relief, and interim civil administration.
Free access of the IAEA to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant at Enerhodar.
Diplomatic and Political Considerations
Diplomatic Engagement with Russia:
A panel of European-appointed international civilian officials will be responsible for ongoing negotiations with the Russian Federation.
The United States will provide diplomatic support and assistance where it deems appropriate.
Addressing Corruption in Ukraine:
Ukraine will commit to implementing a comprehensive anti-corruption framework to align with international standards.
Anti-corruption measures will be overseen by independent international monitors.
Ukraine will organise elections to be held wthin six months of the armistice agreement, overseen by international organisations such as the OSCE to ensure that they are free and fair.
Conclusion
This armistice agreement represents a pragmatic and balanced approach to halting the war while preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty and economic security. By combining military de-escalation, economic reconstruction, and diplomatic engagement, this framework aims to foster a stable future for Ukraine. European leadership in implementing the armistice ensures continuity in support for Ukraine, even amid shifting political dynamics in the United States. This agreement also underscores the broader reality that Ukraine’s long-term success and security require not just military assistance but also economic stability and political resilience in the face of ongoing geopolitical challenges.