A Cold Peace? Evaluating the Proposal to Partition Ukraine Along Berlin Lines

On 12 April 2025, US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg proposed a plan to partition Ukraine into zones of control reminiscent of post-World War II Berlin. Under this proposal, British and French forces would oversee western Ukraine, Russian troops would remain in the occupied east, and an 18-mile (29 kilometre) wide demilitarised zone would separate the two. Notably, Kellogg emphasised that the United States would not contribute ground forces to this arrangement. 

Historical Context: The Berlin Model

After World War II, Berlin was divided into sectors controlled by the Allied powers and the Soviet Union. While initially allowing some free movement between sectors, tensions escalated, leading to the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, which severely restricted civilian movement and symbolised the broader Cold War divide. The Berlin model involved complex arrangements for military and civilian access, with strict permit systems and limited interactions between the sectors.

Practical Implications for Ukraine

Demilitarised Zone (DMZ): Kellogg’s proposal includes an 18-mile-wide DMZ to prevent hostilities between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Establishing and monitoring such a zone would require robust international oversight to ensure compliance and prevent violations.

Civilian Movement: Implementing a system similar to Berlin’s would likely necessitate strict controls and permits for civilians crossing between zones. This could lead to significant humanitarian challenges, including family separations and restricted access to essential services.

Infrastructure and Services: Restoring transportation links, such as railways, between the zones would be complex. In Berlin, the metro system was divided, and coordination between sectors was minimal. Reintegrating services in Ukraine would require extensive negotiation and cooperation between opposing forces.

Governance: The administration of the DMZ and adjacent areas would likely involve a combination of Ukrainian governance under international supervision. Establishing a neutral authority acceptable to all parties would be challenging, given the current geopolitical tensions. It would likely involve a combination of citizens of NATO member states, Russia, and third countries acceptable to both sides.

Border wall: a border wall along Ukraine's 1,000 kilometre front line would be unlikely, although in theory Russia might build a security fence on her side of the front line to prevent civilians from escaping from the occupied territories into free Ukraine. In divided Berlin, citizens from both sides of the wall needed permits from the Soviet / East German authorities to pass into and out of East Berlin at the established crossing points through the wall, such as at the notorious Checkpoint Charlie. A similar regime might emerge in the context of a divided Ukraine.

Diplomatic Developments

The proposal’s emergence coincides with US Envoy Steve Witkoff’s recent visit to Moscow, where he met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing conflict. While details of their discussions remain undisclosed, the timing suggests that Kellogg’s plan may be part of broader diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire. 

Potential Outcomes and Concerns

While the partition plan aims to establish a ceasefire without formal territorial concessions, it raises concerns about solidifying divisions and creating a protracted stalemate. The Berlin analogy underscores the risk of entrenching a divided Ukraine, potentially leading to a new era of geopolitical tension centered in Eastern Europe.

Implementing such a plan would require careful consideration of the humanitarian, political, and security implications. Ensuring the rights and well-being of civilians, maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty, and preventing the escalation of hostilities are paramount.

In conclusion, while the proposal offers a framework for halting active conflict, it necessitates thorough analysis and international cooperation to avoid unintended consequences reminiscent of the Cold War era. It might well usher in an era of intrigue, espionage and complexity for the DMZ and the front line era in Ukraine.