Saturday 10 January 2026 The next Iranian revolution, if and when it comes, is unlikely to resemble the dramatic rupture of 1979. It will not be led by a single exiled cleric, nor will it coalesce around a unified ideology capable of sweeping aside the state in a matter of months. Instead it is more likely to unfold as a prolonged, uneven struggle between a brittle theocratic system and a society that has already, in many respects, moved beyond it. Iran today is governed by t

Saturday 10 January 2026 The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its fourth calendar year. At the start of 2026, the situation on the front line remains characterised by intense attritional combat, incremental positional changes and continued Russian offensive pressure, even as strategic and tactical dynamics evolve rapidly. Russian Operational Posture and Frontline Dynamics Russian forces have maintained broad engagement across multiple sectors of the front. According

Saturday 10 January 2026 A New Theatre in Great-Power Competition The geopolitical struggle between the United States and China has long been anchored in East Asia, trade disputes and technological rivalry. Yet recent developments in Venezuela—particularly the dramatic shift in US influence following a military operation resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and steps toward normalising Caracas–Washington diplomatic relations—have transformed Latin America into

Friday 9 January 2026 Russia’s Oreshnik missile sits in an awkward space between battlefield weapon and political instrument. It is presented by the Kremlin as a decisive new capability, almost a conventional substitute for nuclear force, yet its two known appearances in Ukraine have functioned at least as much as messages as munitions: first to demonstrate that Russia can introduce new strategic-class hardware into the war at a time of her choosing, and now to remind Ukraine

By Tom McEnaney Friday 9 January 2026 Vitalik was beyond excited. As soon as he saw the Irish man walk through the gates of Rozdil Friends Home, the eighteen-year-old ran through the heavy snow to shake the visitor’s hand, then clasped it tightly, as if afraid that releasing it might cause the bearded foreigner to disappear. He only let go when his friends insisted it was their turn to greet one of Rozdil’s more regular guests. The excitement was shared. The boys knew that th

Friday 9 January 2026 Military sabotage is usually imagined as an external act: partisans blowing up railways, commandos disabling airfields, or intelligence services corrupting supply chains. Yet one of the most persistent, and analytically revealing, forms of sabotage is internal. Soldiers themselves may deliberately undermine their own side’s operations, not necessarily out of ideological hostility but from fear, exhaustion, moral refusal, resentment of commanders, or a be